As the United States prepares to complete its withdrawal from Iraq by September 30th, a critical security vacuum is emerging, creating fertile ground for the resurgence of ISIS, warns counterterrorism expert Dr. Omar Mohammed. He states that ISIS is “actively waiting in the gaps, as it historically always has,” mirroring the conditions that allowed the terror group to seize Mosul in 2014. This dangerous period for Iraq is exacerbated by Baghdad’s efforts to rein in Iran-backed militias, which Mohammed argues are deeply intertwined with the ISIS threat; militias claim the ISIS danger to maintain their weapons, while ISIS recruits from the grievances these militias create. This dynamic, he explains, is precisely what hollowed out Mosul before its 2014 fall, leaving the city caught between a sectarian security apparatus and the insurgency it fueled. The concern is not merely the departure of U.S. forces, but what security infrastructure and stability will be left behind. Mohammed highlights that the number of ISIS fighters in Syria has surged significantly, and that powerful Iran-linked factions within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, numbering around 238,000 members and receiving billions in funding, operate with considerable autonomy. He stresses that the simultaneous U.S. withdrawal and domestic disarmament push on September 30th represent two critical deadlines, and that the interdependence of militias and ISIS means both thrive in unstable spaces the central state cannot control. Recalling the complacency that preceded Mosul’s fall, Mohammed warns against repeating past mistakes, emphasizing that the group’s strength is often masked by a withdrawal of attention and honest reporting. Iran’s strategic interest in Iraq, now a key element of its regional influence, adds another layer of complexity, with Tehran fearing an Iraq that successfully disarms militias and operates independently of its agenda. Ultimately, Mohammed concludes that the fate of the region post-withdrawal will be determined by the evolving relationship between ISIS and Iran, posing a defining question for the coming year: whether ISIS grows large enough to frighten Iran, or remains just potent enough to serve its purposes.
Adapted from: Latest World News on Fox News
